The Gap We Can Close

Most of us don’t need an advanced degree in economics to explain what happens when prices go up. We live it out everyday.

You put something back, you decide to switch brands, maybe you drive a little farther because gas is cheaper on the other side of town.

You wait for something to go on sale.

You start paying closer attention to which grocery store has the better prices. Maybe dinner out becomes dinner at home. It doesn’t really matter anyway, because it costs about the same. Maybe something that used to go into the cart without a second thought suddenly requires new consideration.

The big word economists like use for these types of decisions is elasticity.

Most families have another word for it: Tuesday.

For millions of Americans, adjusting to higher prices isn’t an economics lesson. It’s everyday life. Doug talked about that this week, pointing to a recent AP-NORC poll showing that 8 in 10 Americans have changed where they shop, what they buy, or even where and how much they eat because of rising grocery costs.

Some expenses are harder to escape. You can switch from one brand of cereal to another. You can’t just stop driving to work because gasoline got more expensive.

And when families are forced to keep making those adjustments, eventually the question becomes bigger than the price of eggs or the ever-climbing number staring back at you from the gas pump.

That question brings us to another set of numbers released this week.

And these numbers tell us something important about Minnesota’s Sixth District.

People Are Looking for Something Different

A new Public Policy Polling survey of 643 voters in the Sixth District found that 45% say it’s time for someone new to represent them in Congress.

Only 41% of voters who were surveyed said Tom Emmer deserves reelection. Woof.

Emmer has represented our district since 2015. He’s got the advantages that come with more than a decade of tenure: name recognition, national connections and an enormous fundraising operation. Incredible to say about a man who seemingly can do nothing but spend his time on national media hurling insults and racist garbage.

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Emmer has spent more than $4.5 million since the beginning of 2025, compared with approximately $368,000 spent by this Campaign.

And yet, after all that time and all that money, more voters in this poll say they want someone new than voters who say Emmer deserves another term.

His personal numbers aren’t particularly strong, either. The survey found 41% of voters view Emmer favorably while 42% view him unfavorably. Also, there is another number in this poll that may tell us even more about where this race actually stands.

48–48

Among the voters who are already familiar with Doug, the race is tied. Two years ago, Tom Emmer won this district 62%–37%. Today, among voters who know Doug, there is no gap at all.

That doesn’t mean this race is tied overall. It isn’t.

The overall ballot test has Emmer leading 50%–40%, with 9% undecided. Ten points is ten points, and pretending otherwise wouldn’t do anyone any good. But the difference between those two numbers tells us something enormously important. The challenge isn’t simply convincing people who know Doug to support him.

It’s making sure more people get the chance to know him.

Doug put it this way after seeing the results:

“This campaign has always believed that the way we win is by showing up everywhere, talking to everyone and giving voters a real alternative to the same representation they’ve had for twelve years. This poll validates that strategy. When voters get to know us, we can compete with Tom Emmer. Now our job is to make sure as many voters as possible get that opportunity before Election Day.”

That’s about as clear a roadmap as a campaign can ask for folks.

The Gap We Can Close

For months, we’ve talked in this newsletter about knocking doors. We’ve talked about parades and county fairs. We’ve talked about town halls, community events and phone banks. We’ve asked people to volunteer for another shift, make another round of calls, talk to another neighbor or spend another Saturday walking through another Minnesota community.

Campaign work can feel small when you’re in the middle of it.

One door.

One call.

One conversation.

Then another.

It’s difficult to see what all those individual moments add up to while you’re doing them. This week, we got a glimpse.

48–48 doesn’t happen by accident.

Think about what that number means for everyone who has knocked a door, marched in a parade, staffed a booth, attended a town hall, made a phone call, hosted an event, shared a post or simply talked to a neighbor about why this election matters.

It’s working.

Not finished. Not won. Working. There is an enormous difference between those three things. And with ten weeks remaining until Election Day, we now have a much clearer picture of the job ahead.

Introduce Doug to as much of the Sixth District as we possibly can.

There Is Strength in Numbers

Doug shared another message this week that feels particularly appropriate now:

“The hope is out there. The energy is out there. And now it’s emerging as strength as more and more people begin to flex those protest muscles in direct support for the fight for change across Minnesota and the U.S.”

That strength is becoming visible. We’ve seen crowds grow on rally lines and protests emerge in new communities. We’ve watched attendance grow at town halls and fundraisers across the district.

And now we’re seeing more people move from frustration into action: knocking doors, making calls and volunteering for campaigns across Minnesota.

That’s how change happens. Not because one candidate gives the perfect speech. Not because somebody sends the perfect email.

And certainly not because one encouraging poll suddenly changes the political landscape. It happens when enough ordinary people decide they aren’t willing to sit this one out. That’s why there are really two sets of numbers worth paying attention to this week.

There are the poll numbers.

And there are the people numbers.

How many doors can we reach? How many calls can we make? How many neighbors can we talk to? How many people who don’t know Doug today can know exactly who he is, and what he stands for, by November 3rd?

Those are numbers we can actually change.

This Is About More Than a Poll

It’s worth remembering why any of this matters. Our goal isn’t to move numbers on a spreadsheet. It’s to change who gets heard in Washington. It’s the person standing at the gas pump watching the total climb. It’s the parent doing math in the grocery aisle, deciding what to put back. It’s the family trying to figure out whether there’s going to be enough left after the mortgage, groceries, utilities and childcare, praying they make it to the next payday without having an emergency. It’s all the people who are tired of just surviving while being told everything is going just fine.

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Those are the conversations candidates for Congress should be having.

Our representatives in Congress should be asking how they can make it easier for working families to build something.

To save. To finally own a home. To raise a family. To retire with dignity. To have enough breathing room to actually enjoy the lives everyday people are working so hard to build.

Those aren’t Democratic issues or Republican issues.

They’re kitchen-table issues.

They’re Minnesota issues.

And they’re exactly the kinds of conversations our campaign needs to take to every corner of the Sixth District over the next ten weeks. Because the poll tells us something else, too. People are willing to listen. Our job moving forward must be in starting the conversation.

68 Days

Sixty-eight days. Ten weeks. A ten-point gap overall. A tied race among voters who already know Doug. And 45% of voters saying they’re ready for someone new.

That’s the challenge in front of us. However, it’s also an opportunity Democratic campaigns in this district haven’t had in a very long time. We don’t need everyone in Minnesota’s Sixth District to agree with us on everything.

We need to make sure they know they have a choice.

And that happens one conversation at a time. One door at a time. One phone call at a time. One neighbor at a time.

There is strength in numbers.

Over the next 68 days, let’s add to ours.

Around the Sixth

The path forward couldn’t be much clearer: we need to introduce more voters to Doug.

Fortunately, there are plenty of ways to help do exactly that over the next few months!

Knock Doors

Every conversation between now and Election Day matters.

Whether you’ve knocked hundreds of doors or you’ve never knocked one before, there’s a place for you. Grab a friend, join a shift and help introduce Doug to voters throughout the Sixth District.

Make Some Calls

Can’t make it to a canvass? Phone banking is another really great way to reach voters directly from wherever you are. We’ve got phone bank opportunities going on nearly every Monday and Wednesday from now until the election!

You wouldn’t believe how few conversations can make a difference, and as this week’s numbers show, introducing voters to Doug may be one of the most important things we can do between now and November.

Get Out in the Community

Fairs, festivals, parades and community events give us a chance to meet thousands of our neighbors where they already are. They’re always fun, full of energy, and a great way to show up for your community!

Come walk with Team Chapin, help spread the word, and show the Sixth District just how much energy is building behind this campaign.

Ready to Add Your Number?

There is something for everyone in our campaign. Knock a door. Make a call. Walk a parade. Host a sign. Donate. Bring a friend.

However you choose to help, now is the time to get out of your comfort zone and help us make as big an impact as possible!

Find upcoming volunteer opportunities on the Chapin for Congress Mobilize page. Be sure to check out our Facebook group as well, Chapin Champions, for even more info on how you can get involved.

Be sure to follow Doug on Facebook as well!

Doug Chapin for Congress

We want better.
We deserve better.
We’re Ready for Better.

Let’s close the gap!

#Flipthe6th #LFG #ReadyforBetter

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